(also available in the HAL-IFPEN collection: "Les Cahiers de l’Économie”)
Archives : 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010
2022
European Economic impacts of cutting energy imports from Russia: a computable general equilibrium analysis
N° 151 – November 2022 [ RESEARCH ]
Sigit Perdana, Marc Vielle, Maxime Schenckery
The recent economic sanctions against Russia can jeopardize the sustainability of the European Union’s (EU) energy supply. Despite the EU’s strong commitment to stringent abatement targets, fossil fuels still play a significant role in the EU energy policy. Furthermore, high dependency on Russian energy supplies underlines the vulnerability of the EU energy security. Using a global computable general equilibrium model, we prove that the current EU embargo on coal and oil imported from Russia will have adverse supply effects, substantially increasing energy prices and welfare costs for the EU resident.
Read the article / Download (PDF - 6.4 Mo) 
Non-linear distance decay effects of clean energy facilities in housing rental and sale markets: Evidence from hydrogen refueling stations
N° 150 – June 2022 [ RESEARCH ]
Shuya Wu, Arash Farnoosh, Yingdan Mei
While promoting green and low-carbon transition, clean energy facilities also have externalities, which may lead to opposition and economic losses. There is evidence that the impact of facilities decreases with distance, but existing research make strict assumption on its functional form. In this research work we explore the non-linear relationship between housing transaction prices and distances to the nearest facility without predefined functions combined with spatial smoothing in the hedonic pricing model by taking China as a case-study.
Read the article / Download (PDF - 2.6 Mo)
Certificats d’Economies d’Energie : ne pas oublier les fondamentaux !
N° 149 - May 2022 [ ANALYSIS ]
Benoit Ferres, Jacques Millery, Maxime Schenckery
Les Certificats d’Economies d’Energie, CEE font régulièrement l’objet de nombreux débats. Nous proposons ici un retour aux fondamentaux de l’Article 7 européen pour comprendre la logique des attentes qui sont à leur origine, et ainsi mieux cerner l’ensemble des dimensions à l’aune desquelles leur impact devrait être évalué.
Read the article / Download (PDF in French - 2.6 Mo) 
Electricity Distribution Systems in Europe: An Overview of Contemporary Regulatory Challenges
N° 148 - April 2022 [ ANALYSIS ]
Pedro H. Perico E Santos, Olivier Massol
In Europe, a significant adaptation of the existing power distribution sector is necessary to support the transition toward low-carbon energy systems and facilitate the massive deployment of low-carbon distributed power technologies. This report first examines the current organization of that industry and highlights the country-specific and diverse nature of the industry structures and the institutional organizations governing the distribution sector.
Read the article / Download (PDF - 3.2 Mo)
Unlocking CO2 infrastructure deployment: the impact of carbon removal accounting
N° 147 – February 2022 [ RESEARCH ]
Emma Jagu, Olivier Massol
This paper examines the interactions between carbon removal accounting (which determines financial incentives for BECCS) and optimal CO2 infrastructure deployment by asking how certification affects the feasibility of BECCS projects.
Read the article / Download (PDF - 3.7 Mo)
The impact of Electric Vehicle fleets on the European electricity markets: evidences from the German passenger car fleet and power generation sector
N° 146 – January 2022 [ RESEARCH ]
Maria Juliana Suarez Forero, Frédéric Lantz, Pierre Nicolas, Patrice Geoffron
The rapidly increasing participation of renewable energies (REn) into the electric mix, clearly traces the trends for the decarbonization goals in the European Union. Under the priority sale conditions established by governments, the commercialization of REn plays an important role in the consolidation of market prices, which are on a decreasing trend with large fluctuations that reduce the profit in the power sector and therefore, the interest of potential investors.
Read the article / Download (PDF -5.2 Mo)
2021
A Game-theory Analysis of Electric Vehicle Adoption in Beijing under License Plate Control Policy
N° 145 – September 2021
Lijing Zhu, Jingzhou Wang, Arash Farnoosh, Xunzhang Pan
This paper proposes a two-level Stackelberg game which portrays the interaction between vehicle applicants and the government to quantify the optimal EV license plates under the LPC policy in Beijing.
Read the article / Download (PDF - 1.6 Mo)
Does something change in the oil market with the COVID-19 crisis?
N° 144 – July 2021
Dan Zhang, Frédéric Lantz, Arash Farnoosh
This paper examines the price discovery of three international crude oil futures markets (WTI, Brent, INE) before and after the outbreak of the COVID-19 with the application of information share and component share model.
Read the article / Download (PDF -1.2 Mo)
Short-term electricity price forecasting models comparative analysis: Machine Learning vs. Econometrics
N° 143 – May 2021
Antoine Ferre, Guillaume de Certaines, Jérôme Cazelles, Tancrède Cohet, Arash Farnoosh, Frédéric Lantz
This paper gives an overview of several models applied to forecast the day-ahead prices of the German electricity market between 2014 and 2015 using hourly wind and solar productions as well as load.
Read the article / Download (PDF - 5.8 Mo)
Estimating discrete choice experiments: theoretical fundamentals
N°142 – April 2021
Benoît Chèze, Charles Collet, and Anthony Paris
This working paper overviews theoretical foundations and estimators derived from econometric models used to analyze stated choices proposed in Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE) surveys.
Read the article / Download (PDF - 2 Mo)
Cinquième période à venir : les Certificats d’Economies d’Energie, catalyseurs du couple Reprise / Transition Ecologique ?
N°141 - March 2021 [ STUDY & SYNTHESIS ]
Maxime Schenckery, Jacques Millery
Les travaux sur la forme que devra prendre la 5ème période de CEE ont continué, suscitant bien des débats, et aboutissant à une première série de propositions rendue publique début février 2021.
Read the article / Download (PDF - 1 Mo)
Trajectory Based Robust Optimization Applied to the Case of Electricity Facilities Investment with Significant Penetration of Renewables
N°140 – February 2021
Pierre Cayet, Arash Farnoosh
As large scale penetration of renewables into electric systems requires increasing flexibility from dispatchable production units, the electricity mix must be designed in order to address brutal variations of residual demand. Inspired from the philosophy of Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO), we propose a trajectory ambiguity set including residual demand trajectories verifying both support and variability criterion using ambiguous quantile information.
Read the article / Download (PDF - 4.2 Mo)
Quantifying virtual water scarcity risk transfers of energy system in China
N°139 – January 2021
Xuebing Yao, Xu Tang, Arash Farnoosh, Cuiyang Feng
Using multi-regional input-output analysis, this study estimates the virtual flows ad virtual water scarcity risk transfers driven by interprovincial energy consumption in China. Results could provide reference value for policymakers to develop new energy strategies and manage water resources sustainably.
Read the article / Download (PDF - 3,8 Mo)
2020
How are day-ahead prices informative for predicting the next day’s consumption of natural gas?
N°138 – December 2020
Arthur Thomas, Olivier Massol, Benoît Sévi
Using data from France, this paper investigates, for the first time, whether the next day’s consumption of natural gas can be accurately forecast using a simple model that solely incorporates the information contained in dayahead market data.
Read the article / Download (PDF - 1.8 Mo)
Dynamics of biofuel prices on the European market
N°137 – November 2020
Francis Declerck, Jean-Pierre Indjehagopian, Frédéric Lantz
This paper aims at explaining the major drivers of biodiesel market prices by examining agricultural resource prices and gasoil prices for automotive fuels in the context of the EU environmental policy.
Read the article / Download (PDF - 4 Mo)
Certificats : marier reprise économique et transition écologique
N°136 - September 2020 [ STUDY & SYNTHESIS ]
Maxime Schenckery, Jacques Millery
Dans une économie durement touchée par la COVID 19, comment remettre en fonction des acteurs de base de l’économie sur notre territoire à travers des activités porteuses de sens liées à la transition énergétique, dans un contexte de crise où en plus un prix du pétrole bas n’encourage pas cette transition ?
L’utilisation du mécanisme des certificats permet-il de résoudre ce paradoxe, en mariant support à la relance économique et transition énergétique ?
Read the article / Download (PDF - 3.1 Mo)
Building infrastructures for Fossil- and Bio-energy with Carbon Capture and Storage: insights from a cooperative game-theoretic perspective
N°135 - August 2020
Emma Jagu, Olivier Massol
This paper examines the deployment of a shared CO2 transportation infrastructure needed to support the combined emergence of bio-energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and fossil energy with carbon capture and storage (CCS).
Read the article / Download (PDF - 2.5 Mo)
Energy, Knowledge, and Demo-Economic Development in the Long Run
N°134 – May 2020
Emmanuel Bovari, Victor Court
In this article we provide a quantitative analysis of the role of energy in long-term growth, accounting for the interaction between human capital accumulation and technological change. To do so, we design a unified growth model featuring fertility and educational choices, energy resources extraction, directed technical change, and endogenous general purpose technologies diffusion.
Read the article / Download (PDF – 3.5 Mo)
A systematic review of the energy and climate impacts of teleworking
N°133 – March 2020
Andrew Hook, Victor Court, Benjamin Sovacool, Steve Sorrell
This review assesses how changes in working practices are associated with different forms of teleworking, including the use of different ICTs, various commuting/travel options, and different working spaces such as offices, cafes, libraries, and homes.
Read the article / Download (PDF – 1.8 Mo)
What can be learned from the free destination option in the LNG imbroglio?
N°132 – January 2020
Amina Baba, Anna Creti, Olivier Massol
This article examine the profitability of flexible routing by LNG cargoes for a single supplier taking into account uncertainty in the medium-term dynamics of gas markets. Results portend a substantial source of profit for the industry and reveal future movements of vessels.
Read the article / Download (PDF – 3 Mo)
2019
A Representation of the World Population Dynamics for Integrated Assessments Models
N° 131 – November 2019
Victor Court, Florent McIsaac
Using the gross world product (GWP) as the only exogenous input variable, we design a model able to accurately reproduce the global population dynamics over the period 1950–2015. We then add to our model an excess mortality function associated with climate change.
Read the article / Download (PDF - 8 Mo)
Rate-of-return regulation to unlock natural gas pipeline deployment
N° 130 – September 2019
Florian Perrotton, Olivier Massol
Focusing on the situation in Mozambique, we examine whether the adoption of rate-of-return (RoR) regulation can reconcile the public authorities’ ambition for the construction of a large national pipeline system and the preference of foreign private investors for smaller infrastructure that are solely intended to supply a few creditworthy industrial sites.
Read the article / Download (PDF - 5.1 Mo)
Copper at the Crossroads
N° 129 – July 2019
Clément Bonnet, Gondia Seck, Emmanuel Hache, Marine Simoën, Samuel Carcanague
The aim of this article is to assess the impact of copper availability on the energy transition and to answer the question whether copper could become critical to the power and the transport sectors due to the high copper content of low-carbon technologies compared to conventional technologies.
Read the article / Download (PDF - 7.7 Mo)
Understanding farmers’ reluctance to reduce pesticide use: A choice experiment
N° 128 – June 2019
Benoît Chèze, Maïa David, Vincent Martinet
This article analyzes conventional farmers’ willingness to reduce their use of synthetic pesticides. To do so, a discrete choice experiment was design to include the risk of large production losses due to pests.
Read the article / Download (PDF - 5 Mo)
Economic Assessment of the Development of CO2 Direct Reduction Technologies in Long-term Climate Strategies of the Gulf Countries
N° 127 – May 2019
Frédéric Barbonneau, Ahmed Badran, Maroua Benlahrech, Alain Haurie, Maxime Schenckery, Marc Vielle
In this paper, we explore the long-term options offered to GCC countries by Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies in the negotiations for a fair burden sharing of Paris agreement objectives.
Read the article / Download (PDF - 2.5 Mo)
Some Geopolitical Issues of the Energy Transition
N° 126 – March 2019 [ STUDY & SYNTHESIS ]
Emmanuel Hache, Samuel Carcanague, Clément Bonnet, Gondia Seck, Marine Simoën
This article is a summary in English of the Policy Paper published in January 2019 under the title “Vers une géopolitique de l’énergie plus complexe ? Une analyse prospective tridimensionnelle de la transition énergétique”, Policy Research Working Paper, Projet GENERATE, IRIS – IFP Energies nouvelles – ANR.
Read the article / Download (PDF - 7.6 Mo)
On the CO2 emissions determinants of the EU ETS Phases I and II
N° 125 – February 2019
Benoît Chèze, Julien Chevalier, Nicolas Berghmans, Emilie Alberola
This article studies ex-post the CO2 emissions determinants during 2005-2012 by resorting to an original database merging the European Union Transaction Log (EUTL) with the World Electric Power Plants (WEPP) database maintained by Platts.
Read the article / Download (PDF - 3.9 Mo)
2018
The Nexus Between Climate Negotiations and Low-Carbon Innovation :A Geopolitics of Renewable Energy Patents
N° 124 – December 2018
Clément Bonnet, Samuel Carcanague, Gondia Seck, Emmanuel Hache, Marine Simoën
Intellectual property is a central issue in the climate negotiations. On the one hand, it shapes and encourages innovation in low‐carbon technologies. On the other hand, it reduces access to these technologies by giving patent holders market power. We analyze the interactions between climate negotiations and the acquisition of patents on renewable energy technologies.
Read the article / Download (PDF - 4.2 Mo)
Analyzing the Dynamic Impact of Electricity Futures on Revenue and Risk of Renewable Energy in China
N° 123 – October 2018
Yue Zhang, Arash Farnoosh
Although the electricity market in China has gone through several reforms, there is not yet a competitive spot or derivative market. This article proposes a model that estimates the risk premium and simulates the future prices in China’s market.
Read the article / Download (PDF - 4 Mo)
Climate-energy-water nexus in Brazilian oil refineries
N° 122 – September 2018
Fernanda Guedes, Alexandre Szklo, Pedro Rochedo, Frédéric Lantz, Leticia Magalar, Eveline Maria, Vásquez Arroyo
By simulating two parametric models, one for all Brazilian refineries, and the other locally detailing the water balance of the country´s largest refinery, this study aimed to quantify the impacts of CO2 mitigation options on the water use of oil refineries.
Read the article / Download (PDF - 4.5 Mo)
Policy measures targeting a more integrated gas market
N° 121 – June 2018
Ekaterina Dukhanina, Olivier Massol, François Lévêque
Based on a French case study, this article answers the question whether a merger of gas trading zones contributes to the development of liquid trading activities through a more efficient allocation and pricing of natural gas and an increased competition.
Read the article / Download (PDF - 11.2 Mo)
Is there a market value for energy performance in a local private housing market?
N° 120 – April 2018
Déborah Leboullenger, Frédéric Lantz, Catherine Baumont
Using frontier fonctions instead of the customary hedonistic approach, this article aims to find evidence of a “green value” in a local housing market using notarial data on a small urban area in France.
Read the article / Download (PDF - 5.2 Mo)
Demand-pull instruments and the development of wind power in Europe: a counterfactual analysis
N° 119 – March 2018
Clément Bonnet, Marc Baudry
This paper examines the effect of demand-pull policies on the diffusion of onshore wind power technology in six European countries: Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Portugal and Spain.
Read the article / Download (PDF - 2.2 Mo)
GIS-Based Multi-Objective Particle Swarm Optimization of Charging Station for Electric Vehicles – Taking a District in Beijing as an Example
N° 118 – February 2018
Yue Zhang, Arash Farnoosh, Qi Zhang, Siyuan Chen
The rapid development of electric vehicles can greatly alleviate the environmental problems and energy tension. However, the lack of public supporting facilities has become the biggest problem hinders its development.
Read the article / Download (PDF - 2.8 Mo)
2017
Spatial integration of natural gas markets: A literature review
N° 117 – November 2017
Ekaterina Dukhanina, Olivier Massol
The purpose of this paper is to clarify the definition of an integrated market and to provide a commented overview of the different empirical methodologies that have been proposed to assess the degree of spatial integration of natural gas markets.
Read the article / Download (PDF - 3 Mo)
Long-term endogenous economic growth and energy transitions
N° 116 – September 2017
Victor Court, Pierre-André Jouvet, Frédéric Lantz
This article build a bridge between the endogenous economic growth theory, the biophysical economics perspective, and the past and future transitions between renewable and nonrenewable energy forms that economies have had to and will have to accomplish.
Read the article / Download (PDF - 4.2 Mo)
The technology and cost structure of a natural gas pipeline
N° 115 – July 2017
Florian Perrotton, Olivier Massol
This note details a complete microeconomic characterization of the physical relationships between input use and the level of output of a simple point-to-point gas pipeline system and uses it to contribute to the public policy discussions pertaining to the economic regulation of natural gas pipelines.
Read the article / Download (PDF - 1.5 Mo)
Impact of variable renewable production on electricity prices in Germany: a Markov Switching model
N° 114 – May 2017
Cyril Martin de Lagarde, Frédéric Lantz
This paper aims at assessing the impact of renewable energy sources (RES) production on electricity spot prices. To do so, we use a two-regime Markov Switching (MS) model, that enables to disentangle the so-called “merit-order effect” due to wind and solar photovoltaic productions (used in relative share of the electricity demand), depending on the price being high or low.
Read the article / Download (PDF - 5.2 Mo)
Long-term estimates of the energy-return-on-investment (EROI) of coal, oil, and gas global productions
N° 113 – March 2017
Victor Court, Florian Fizaine
In this study, we use a price-based methodology to assess the global energy-return-on-investment (EROI) of coal, oil, and gas, from the beginning of their reported production (respectively 1800, 1860, and 1890) to 2012.
Read the article / Download (PDF - 2 Mo)
Market power and spatial arbitrage between interconnected gas hubs
N° 112 – January 2017
Olivier Massol, Albert Banal-Estañol
This paper examines the performance of the spatial arbitrages carried out between two regional markets for wholesale natural gas linked by a pipeline system. We use the case of the “Interconnector” pipeline linking Belgium and the UK as an application.
Read the article / Download(PDF - 3.4 Mo)
2016
N° 111 - September 2016
Phasing out the U.S. Federal Helium Reserve: Policy insights from a world helium model (PDF - 2,26 Mo)
N° 110 - September 2016
Energy transition in transportation under cost uncertainty, an assessment based on robust op...( PDF - 2,6 Mo)
N° 109 - September 2016
Do renewable energies improve energy security in the long run? (PDF - 200 Ko)
N° 108 - September 2016
Robust Energy Transition Pathways for Global Warming Targets (PDF - 5 Mo)
N° 107 - July 2016
The land use change time-accounting failure (PDF - 600 Ko)
N° 106 - April 2016
Sanctions against Iran: An assessment of their global impact through the lens of international m... (PDF - 600 Ko)
N° 105 - April 2016
On the economic optimization of national power generation mix in Iran: A Markowitz’ portfolio-... (PDF - 4,2 Mo)
N° 104 - April 2016
The Effect of Biofuels on the Link between Oil and Agricultural Commodity Prices: A Smooth Trans... (PDF - 750 Ko)
N° 103 - April 2016
Beyond average energy consumption in the French residential housing market: A household classifi... (PDF - 1,8 Mo)
N° 102 - April 2016
Un nouveau cycle de fusions et acquisitions dans le secteur des hydrocarbures ? Une analyse éco... (PDF - 1 Mo)
2015
N° 101 - July 2015
Decarbonisation of electricity generation in an oil & gas producing country: "A sensitivity an... (PDF - 1 Mo)
N° 100 - November 2015
Incentives for early adoption of carbon capture technology: further considerations from a Eu... (PDF - 3,82 Mo)
N° 99 - July 2015
On the link between oil price and exchange rate: A time-varying VAR parameter approach (PDF - 1,72 Mo)
2014
N° 98 - October 2014
(How) does sectoral detail affect the robustness of policy insights from energy system models?... (PDF - 4,30 Mo)
N° 97 - January 2014
Market power across the Channel: Are Continental European gas markets isolated? (PDF - 444 Ko)
2013
N° 96 - December 2013
Second-best urban tolling with distributive concerns (PDF - 570 Ko)
N° 95 - December 2013
The use of Meta-Regression Analysis to harmonize LCA literature: an application to GHG emissions of 2nd and 3rd generation biofuels (PDF - 1,7 Mo)
N° 94 - 2013
Will technological progress be sufficient to stabilize CO2 emissions from air transport in the mid-term? (PDF - 712 Ko)
N° 93 - 2013
On the link between oil and commodity prices: a panel VAR approach (PDF - 340 Ko)
N° 92 - December 2013
Electricity generation analyses in an oil-exporting country: Transition to non-fossil fuel based power units in Saudi Arabia (PDF - 520 Ko)
N° 91 - November 2013
Personal car, public transport and other alternatives? Predicting potential modal shifts from multinomial logit models and bootstrap confidence intervals (PDF - 1,23 Mo)
N° 90 - November 2013
Lessons from the use of a long-term energy model for consequential life cycle assessment: the BTL case (PDF - 7 Mo)
2012
N° 89 - October 2012
Joining the CCS Club! Insights from a Northwest European CO2 Pipeline Project (PDF - 754 Ko)
N° 88 - September 2012
Petroleum products price interactions on the world markets: an econometric analysis (PDF - 419 Ko)
N° 87 - September 2012
The French biofuels mandates under cost uncertainty - an assessment based on robust optimization (PDF - 1 Mo)
2011
N° 86 - December 2011
Air traffic energy efficiency differs from place to place: analysis of historical trends by geographical zones using a macro-level methodology (PDF - 554 Ko)
N° 85 - December 2011
Export diversification and resource-based industrialization: the case of natural gas (PDF - 1 Mo)
N° 84 - December 2011
A generalized Nash-Cournot model for the north-western European natural gas markets with a fuel substitution demand function: the GaMMES model (PDF - 1 Mo)
N° 83 - December 2011
Bioenergies usages in electricity generation utility means through a modelling approach: application to the French case (PDF - 1 Mo)
N° 82 - December 2011
The bioenergies development: the role of biofuels and the CO2 price (PDF - 812 Ko)
N° 81 - April 2011
Construction of a fuel demand function portraying interfuel substitution, a system dynamics approach (PDF - 1,5 Mo)
N° 80 - April 2011
Oil price volatility: An Econometric Analysis of the WTI Market (PDF - 0,3 Mo)
N° 79 - April 2011
Security of supply and retail competition in the European gas market, some model-based insights (PDF - 1,6 Mo)
N° 78 - March 2011
Does OPEC still exist as a cartel? An empirical investigation? (PDF - 0,8 Mo)
2010
N° 77 - December 2010
Forecasting Air Traffic and corresponding Jet-Fuel Demand until 2025 (PDF - 1,9 Mo)
N° 76 - December 2010
Analyse des tendances et des ruptures sur le marché automobile français - Modélisation du taux de diésélisation dans le parc (PDF - 330 Ko)
You may also be interested in
